Recently, 1,158 participants selected the winner, against the spread, of 19 NCAA College Football bowl games. I, being one of those participants, selected 8 correct winners – not my best effort. Let’s see how everyone else did.
And the data
The formula in column C is
I really don’t know much about normal distributions. I scaled up the result of NORMDIST so that it’s highest point would match the highest point of the data. I started with 1 standard deviation and it was a much narrower curve. I ended up putting the standard deviation in F1 and adjusting it until the number of participants was about equal to the actual number of participants. I probably broke some statistical commandment, so I’ll see you in statistics hell.