Disclaimer: I’m not a statistician. I aced Business Statistics, but that was 20 years ago and I forgot everything the day after the final.
My premise is that Points-per-Yard on offense and Yards-per-Point on Defense are predictive of the final score of a game. I went back to week five of the college football season to look at the data. The rankings that are used are current (week 6), which makes the results a little suspect.
I added Points-per-Yard * 100 to Yards-per-Point for each team. For each game, I compared the difference in that calculation between the two teams. Then I calculated the score difference. I used the CORREL function to see how well the data correlated. Ignoring games with D1AA teams, the correlation coefficient was .14.
That’s not too predictive. Maybe week 3 is too early in the season, so I go to week 5. Maybe I need to exclude more crappy opponents. Maybe I need to exclude even more crappy opponents. Maybe instead of looking at stats against highly ranked team, I need to look at those against opponents that are near this week’s opponent’s rank. Maybe not so near. Here’s the data
|Week||Criteria||# of Games||Corr. Coeff.|
|3||All D1A Games||44||.14|
|5||Games Against Top 60||38||.30|
|5||Games Against Top 80||50||.27|
|5||All D1A Games||53||.23|
|5||Games Against Opp. Rank +/-20||24||-.30|
|5||Games Against Opp. Rank +/-30||34||-.29|
|5||Games Against Opp. Rank +/-40||41||-.21|
Maybe, just maybe, this stat doesn’t predict a damn thing.