The NFL has a slotting system that is ever-so-slightly malleable, where a player who gets drafted one spot lower than another player occasionally gets a smidgeon of a better deal. And sometimes a quarterback gets an above-market deal. But position players and non-quarterback skill players are slotted, and despite the efforts of agents to break the slotting system when picked lower than the agent or player thinks he should be picked, the league mostly holds firm.
Andre Smith was an outstanding tackle at Alabama. The Cincinnati Bengals drafted him 6th in the draft last April. Smith and the Bengals can’t seem to agree on how much Smith should make, so I’ll help them out. It’s $8.83 million per year.
There are two unsigned first rounders left. I don’t care about Crabtree for a variety of reasons (#1: He’s from Texas Tech). The Bengals reportedly are offering Smith less than the #7 pick. They think they should pay what’s fair. Smith (and his agent Keels) thinks what’s fair is the long standing tradition of slotting first round picks.
I don’t know much about trend lines. Microsoft says that the best trend line is the one with an R-squared value closest to 1. So I showed the R-squared value (Format Trendline – Options) and tried all of the different kinds. Polynomial was the best one. I could get the R-squared closer to 1 if I increased the “Order”, but I stuck with the default because the line was prettier.
I wanted to show where Smith would end up on that line, but there doesn’t appear to be a way to do that automatically. First I went back into the Options to show the formula so I could compute Smith’s y value. Next, I created a new series that had #NA for every y value except for Smith, where I computed
A28 being where his x value is. Then I made his data marker orange and black.
In conclusion, Cincinnati should offer and Smith should accept $8.83 million per year for 5 or 6 years and let’s get on with playing football.